PARAGRAPH,WORDS AND MEANINGS

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Topic Of The Day:-“Caution Ahead: On Economic Growth And Election Spending”

Election-Season Temptations For Populist Spending Pose A Challenge To The Economy

The first advance estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2018-19 released by the Central Statistics Office on Monday paints a mixed picture of the economy. The GDP growth rate for the full year is projected to be at 7.2%, which is significantly higher than the growth rate of 6.7% achieved last year. Many sectors of the economy are projected to do better than they did last year in the aftermath of the twin shocks of demonetisation and the rollout of the Goods and Services Tax. Sectors such as manufacturing and construction, for instance, are projected to grow at a healthy pace of 8.3% and 8.9%, respectively, both of which are higher than the growth rate of below 6% that each sector witnessed last year. Interestingly, the CSO’s growth estimate for 2018-19 appears conservative and is lower than the estimates made by institutions such as the Reserve Bank of India and the World Bank. A worrying trend in the economic data is the recent sequentialdeceleration in growth over consecutive quarters. According to the CSO, growth is likely to slow down considerably from the average of 7.6% recorded during the first half of the current fiscal year to around 6.8% in the second half. This sequential slowdown is expected to get reflected in the sectoral level data as well with sectors like manufacturing expected to slow down sharply in the second half of the year compared to the first half. On the brighter side, investment spending, which has ailed the economy for long, is expected to pick up finally. Gross fixed capital formation as a percentage of GDP is expected to reach 33%, the highest in three years.One of the significant near-term risks to the economy is the general election that is expected to be held in May. Regime uncertainty associated with the election may put a halt to the nascent pick-up witnessed in investments as corporations might decide to hold back on big ticket investments until things clear up. A major risk in the medium to long term is the absence of meaningful structural reforms that are necessary to increase economic productivity combined with populist policies that eventually damage the economy. Another perennial risk is the over-dependence on imported oil, which makes growth heavily dependent on external events often beyond the control of the government. The projected slowdown in the second half of the fiscal despite the fall in global oil prices is a worrying sign. Ahead of the general election, the government may wish to help growth by boosting spending, but any such move would be ill-advised. With the fiscal deficit exceeding the Budget estimate by 15% in just the first eight months of the fiscal year, the government cannot crank up spending without severely affecting its finances, along with investor confidence in the economy.

MEANINGS AND WORDS

1) pace

Meaning : a single step taken when walking or running(n).

Synonyms : measure

Antonyms : stay

Example : “Kirov stepped back a pace”

2) conservative

Meaning : averse to change or innovation and holding traditional values.(adj)

Synonyms : traditional

Antonyms : inconstant

Example : “they were very conservative in their outlook”

3) estimates

Meaning : roughly calculate or judge the value, number, quantity, or extent of(v).

Synonyms : measure

Antonyms : ignorance

Example : “the aim is to estimate the effects of macroeconomic policy on the economy”

4) sequential

Meaning : forming or following in a logical order or sequence(adj).

Synonyms : consecutive

Example : “a series of sequential steps”

5) deceleration

Meaning : reduction in speed or rate(n).

Synonyms : decline

Antonyms : increase

Example : “speed brakes enable the aircraft to carry out rapid deceleration”

6) ailed

Meaning : trouble or afflict (someone) in mind or body(v).

Synonyms : afflict

Antonyms : aid

Example : “exercise is good for whatever ails one”

7) nascent

Meaning : (especially of a process or organization) just coming into existence and beginning to display signs of future potential(adj).

Synonyms : imperfect

Antonyms : developed

Example : “the nascent space industry”

8) uncertainty

Meaning : the state of being uncertain(n).

Synonyms : ambiguity

Antonyms : assurance

Example : “times of uncertainty and danger”

9) associated

Meaning : (of a person or thing) connected with something else(adj).

Synonyms : combine

Antonyms : divide

Example : “two associated events”

10) considerably

Meaning : by a notably large amount or to a notably large extent; greatly(adv).

Synonyms : appreciably

Antonyms : slightly

Example : “things have improved considerably over the last few years”

11) instance

Meaning : an example or single occurrence of something(n).

Synonyms : detail

Antonyms : repetition

Example : “a serious instance of corruption”

12) estimate

Meaning : roughly calculate or judge the value, number, quantity, or extent of.(v)

Synonyms : appraisal

Antonyms : ignorance

Example : “the aim is to estimate the effects of macroeconomic policy on the economy”

13) diplomatic

Meaning : of or concerning diplomacy.

Synonyms : tactful

Antonyms : impolite

Example : “diplomatic relations with Britain were broken”

14) assurances

Meaning : a positive declaration intended to give confidence; a promise(n).

Synonyms : assertion

Antonyms : break

Example : “he gave an assurance that work would begin on Monday”

15) conflict

Meaning : be incompatible or at variance; clash(v).

Synonyms : combat

Antonyms : truce

Example : “parents’ and children’s interests sometimes conflict”

16) involved

Meaning : difficult to understand; complicated.

Synonyms : confusing

Antonyms : simple

Example : “a long, involved conversation”

17) territorial

Meaning : relating to the ownership of an area of land or sea(adj).

Synonyms : sectional

Antonyms : centralized

Example : “territorial disputes”

18) ostensibly

Meaning : as appears or is stated to be true, though not necessarily so; apparently.(adv)

Synonyms : evidently

Antonyms : improbably

Example : “the party secretary resigned, ostensibly from ill health”

19) considers

Meaning : think carefully about (something), typically before making a decision.

Synonyms : contemplate

Antonyms : disregard

Example : “each application is considered on its merits”

20) uncertainty

Meaning : the state of being uncertain(n).

Synonyms : ambiguity

Antonyms : assurance

Example : “times of uncertainty and danger”

21) associated

Meaning : (of a person or thing) connected with something else(adj).

Synonyms : combine

Antonyms : detach

Example : “two associated events”

22) expected

Meaning : regarded as likely; anticipated(adj).

Synonyms : normal

Example : “write down your expected monthly income, and regularly track your expenses”

23) nascent

Meaning : (especially of a process or organization) just coming into existence and beginning to display signs of future potential.(adj)

Synonyms : amorphous

Antonyms : developed

Example : “the nascent space industry”