Reassuring resolve: On the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee’s move
Growth can only be tenuous if retail inflation is unchecked
The MPC, which voted by a 4-2 majority to hold interest rates and keep the policy stance focused on the withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation aligns to the target, also raised its projection for headline retail inflation in the July-September quarter to 4.4%, 60 basis points higher than the 3.8% pace projected in June. The rate panel also posited slightly faster inflation in the third fiscal quarter than it had forecast previously, lifting the projection by 10 basis points to 4.7%, in a clear sign that the near-term inflation outlook appears less reassuring than it did just two months ago. And while Mr. Das noted that, in June, vegetable prices had contributed about 35% to headline inflation, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, in an analysis, forecast price pressures in vegetables to ‘sustain well into the festive season through till early November’, adding pressure on retail headline inflation. Core inflation may also have bottomed out according to the MPC, which flagged the risks of spillover from food prices, as well as the impact mobile tariff revisions may have on broader non-food inflation. Policymakers hearteningly reiterated the truism that without ensuring enduring price stability, growth may at best be tenuous.