The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Haryana is leaving no stone unturned to fight back a resurgent Congress, as the State is scheduled to have a single-phase Assembly election on October 1 for all 90 seats. The attempts of the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) to retain its position as a third player, and of the Aam Aadmi Party to emerge as one, continue, though a sharp polarisation between the two national parties appears likely. The BJP has to tackle double anti-incumbency as it has been in power in both the State and the Centre for the last 10 years. Cognisant of the headwinds, the BJP replaced then Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini, in March ahead of the general election. Mr. Saini has been trying to pacify various interest groups, by reversing many decisions of his predecessor and announcing new schemes. Sarpanches who are up in arms over the curtailing of their rights have got their expenditure limit increased for the gram panchayats from ₹5 lakh to ₹21 lakh. He has organised special camps, or ‘Samadhan Shivirs’, to address people’s grievances; and 1.20 lakh contractual employees have been ensured job security until the age of superannuation. The creamy layer annual income for Other Backward Classes, that was reduced to ₹6 lakh by Mr. Manohar Lal Khattar, has been restored to its level of ₹8 lakh. A 10% horizontal reservation for Agniveers in various State government posts, and an expanded minimum support price regime for crops have been promised.

Haryana’s fundamental social cleft between Jats and non-Jats had worked to the BJP’s advantage in the last two Assembly elections. But the multi-caste alliance behind the BJP had begun to weaken by the 2019 Assembly election, with the farmers’ agitation and the Agnipath scheme undermining it further in the last five years. Additionally, the party is caught in numerous rivalries within the tent. The party’s majority in the Assembly itself is questionable. The Congress hopes to cash in on all this and turn around its own fortunes. Former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, who is helming the Congress campaign, appears to have consolidated the party behind him. His focus is on unemployment and the crisis in the agricultural sector. The Congress still has the task of ensuring that its factional leaders remain united until the end. Communal polarisation, though at its lowest in the last 10 years, can still wreck the party’s plans. Despite a decline, the BJP managed to avoid a total rout in the Lok Sabha election. The Congress and the BJP shared the 10 Lok Sabha seats equally, while the Congress increased its vote share across the State. The outcome in Haryana will have implications for the Congress and the BJP at the national level.