Losing momentum: On slowing consumption demand
GST receipts and other recent indicators suggest consumption is still a concern
The Goods and Services Tax (GST) receipts for December, based on transactions concluded in November, do not have much succour to offer either, especially on the consumption engine of the economy. Gross revenues were at a three-month low of almost ₹1.77 lakh crore, and just 7.3% higher than last year, marking the joint-second slowest uptick in three and a half years. December’s revenues, in fact, mark the fourth straight month of below-10% growth, with the pace decelerating every passing month, and the year-to-date rise in revenues is now just 8.6%, making the 11% growth estimate in the Budget a tall task to catch up with in the final quarter. Net revenues after refunds were just 3.3%, the slowest this fiscal, although this may partly be explained by high refund payouts in December. Revenue growth from domestic transactions slowed to 8.4%, while import revenues grew just 3.9% — the former may perhaps be linked to tighter retail credit flows and a post-Deepavali spending pullback, but the latter is a tad puzzling as November’s goods import bill had shot up 27% to a record high of $70 billion. The poor revenue growth rates for major consumer States such as Uttar Pradesh (1%) and Gujarat (4%), and the persistent contraction in Andhra Pradesh and a few northeastern States (including Manipur), also need closer scrutiny. For the Budget’s formulation, the Centre would do well to try to understand and address the pain points afflicting consumption, including high inflation.