Sound and fury: On the monsoon
India needs a societal effort to factor in IMD forecasts in everyday life
One of the quirks of how the IMD measures monsoon rainfall is that it only counts rainfall from June 1 to September 30 as ‘monsoon rainfall.’ Thus all the rain that has flooded Kerala, Mumbai and other cities since May 24 (when the monsoon landed) is accounted as ‘pre-monsoon’ rainfall. In its update, the IMD said that it anticipates June to receive ‘above normal’ rains. This means that the rains so far are a mere trailer to what is to come. This could be good news for kharif sowing and help the country improve its stocks of grain as well as shore up reserves for exports. The way the monsoon and forecasts are framed in the Indian context is that more rain is seen as a positive, given its connection to agriculture and that a large part of India is entirely reliant, disconcertingly, on the monsoon for a healthy crop. With accelerating urbanisation, excess rains are not always an unmitigated good. The floods that overwhelm cities are no longer restricted to the major metropolises but also tier-2 and tier-3 towns. While several of these cities are not even equipped for ‘normal’ rainfall, administrations — State and central — must seriously incorporate the portent from climate change which translates into citizens navigating erratic rainfall and greater disruptions from floods. While improved and high-resolution forecasts are a positive development, they have limited value without a wide-ranging societal effort to incorporate its warnings to improve everyday living.