Uneven growth: On industrial production data for September
Increasing incomes and creating jobs are a must to boost demand
The industrial production data for September is especially useful as it provides insights into longer periods such as the second quarter and the first half of the financial year. The news is not all bad, but there are areas that warrant attention. When looked at on a half-yearly basis, the IIP data for April-September 2025 show that industrial growth was the slowest in at least five years. At just 3%, the half-yearly growth is well below what it should be. However, quarterly growth shows that things are improving — Q2 growth was a more robust 4.1%, compared to 2% in Q1. The bright spot in all of this, at least on the surface, has been the manufacturing sector. In September, it grew by 4.8%, the second highest in this financial year. On a quarterly basis, the July-September 2025 quarter saw the manufacturing sector grow by a relatively strong 4.9%, the fastest quarterly growth it has seen since the quarter-ended December 2023. On a half-yearly basis, too, the sector’s growth bounced back to 4.1% in the April-September 2025 half, after having slowed to 3.8% in the first half of the previous year. Activity in the mining sector contracted in September 2025, the second quarter, as well as in the first half of the financial year. While some of this can be attributed to the monsoon this year, this performance is still unusually poor. Strengthening the sector should be a priority to shore up India’s energy and strategic mineral security.