The new series of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the second data release of which was issued on Thursday, does not yet have enough historical data for robust comparisons, but does include enough information to provide clues about the future. Retail inflation in India quickened to a 10-month high of 3.2% in February 2026, largely driven by food inflation and precious metal prices. This rise is something that the government should take note of early, avoiding any complacency that might have crept in due to the low inflation levels of the last year or so. Food has a lower weight in the new series as compared to the old one, but is nevertheless a major driver of inflation with a 36.75% weight in the overall CPI. Inflation in food and beverages rose to 3.35% in February from 2.1% in the previous month, driven by quickening price levels in the meat, oils, and fruits and nuts categories. Notably, inflation in tomato prices stood at more than 45%. Thankfully, this was accompanied by a contraction in prices of the two other staples — onions and potatoes — by 28% and 18%, respectively. A large part of the low inflation last year was due to a statistical base effect that is now gone. Looking ahead, there are various factors that could result in rapidly rising food inflation. The first is that climate scientists are predicting the return of the El Niño effect in the middle of the monsoon this year. A weak monsoon will naturally raise food prices. The second impact will depend on how long the conflict in West Asia continues. Sustained natural gas supply constraints will hurt fertilizer production, affecting food output and, eventually, prices.