Decisive wins: On M.P., Rajasthan, Telangana and Chhattisgarh Assembly election results
The BJP rode on the back of its national leadership in the Hindi heartland, while the Congress relied on regional satraps for its success in Telangana
These decisive numbers give the BJP central leadership the latitude to have its way in government formation in all three States. The lion’s share of the credit for the victories belongs to Mr. Modi, reinforcing his authority ahead of 2024 when he will be seeking a third straight term. Mr. Chouhan chose not to raise his profile in the campaign, allowing the central leadership to take full responsibility in Madhya Pradesh, just as in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot fought a spirited battle, and though he lost, prevented a complete washout of the Congress. In Chhattisgarh, the party collapsed in the storm of allegations of corruption and under the weight of botched social engineering that isolated the tribal communities. All three heartland States have exposed many a chink in the Congress armour, particularly its two prongs of social justice and welfare schemes. These are essential but not sufficient tools for victory. Trust in leadership, representation of social groups, astute selection of candidates, effective campaigning, ideological clarity and, above all, organisational cohesion are required, especially to retain power.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) trumped the Congress in all the three States where the two were in a face-to-face fight, wresting control of both Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and retaining power in Madhya Pradesh. A remarkable revival in Telangana that pushed the BJP to the third place was the only consolation for the Congress. The BJP’s victories signify a consolidation of its hold over the Hindi heartland and in straight contests against its principal national opponent. The Congress had won all three States five years ago, though it lost Madhya Pradesh midway through its term to politically opportunistic mass defections. True, the Congress’s consolation prize in Telangana is remarkable, beating back a regional party that had sought to become synonymous with the struggle for Statehood. But to regain support in the Hindi-speaking States in time for the Lok Sabha election next year seems an uphill struggle for the party. The overall electoral map now suggests a divergence between the BJP strongholds in the north and the west, and peninsular India where non-BJP parties are in power. But the party’s performance in Telangana where it won eight seats compared to just one last time is notable. The setback to the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) in Telangana is not ordinary anti-incumbency, but a pointed rejection of its dynastic reign devoid of any ideological content. The BJP campaign had pivoted around Prime Minister Narendra Modi, relegating its regional leaders, including sitting Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan of Madhya Pradesh, to the background. This was a highly risky strategy, considering the party’s defeat in Karnataka in May after it antagonised regional satraps and caste groups. In the end, the party won 115 out of 199 (one yet to be held) seats in Rajasthan, 164 of 230 in Madhya Pradesh, and 54 of 90 in Chhattisgarh.